Coronavirus herd immunity. You’ll have heard that phrase I imagine in recent weeks. In the Netherlands, there has been much discussion about herd immunity since the Dutch prime minister addressed the nation on March 16. But is the Netherlands really pursuing a policy of building up herd immunity?
The Coronavirus Herd Immunity Idea Started in the UK
I believe the UK prime minister Johnson was one of the first major players to talk about herd immunity as a viable national policy for the coronavirus crisis. His words were along the line of people taking the coronavirus on the chin and in that way building up immunity to the virus across the population.
His comments went down like a lead balloon.
The basic premise is that if the majority of the population has had the coronavirus then they will be immune for a number of months. Therefore slowing the spread of the virus.
The notion is that the majority of people who have COVID-19 show few or minor symptoms. Therefore, Johnson said, letting the virus spread across the population, whilst protecting those vulnerable to the virus, is one way to deal with the pandemic.
Who is Vulnerable to the Coronavirus?
Those who are more susceptible to serious complications with COVID-19 are those over seventy and those with underlying health conditions.
That’s the theory. However, at a certain point it was notably the under fifties in intensive care beds in Brabant, the Netherlands.
The rhetoric has changed a little as this coronavirus crisis has developed.
Just because you are young and healthy, it does not mean you cannot end up in an intensive care unit fighting for your life.
Herd Immunity Policy Abandoned in the UK
Given this, pursuing the idea of herd immunity became a political hot potato and the idea was abandoned in the UK. And Johnson and his government introduced lock down measures.
And then Mark Rutte talked of coronavirus herd immunity in the Netherlands when he addressed the nation on March 16. You can read the whole speech here (in Dutch). Or here in English.
Coronavirus Herd Immunity in the Netherlands
So suddenly Mark Rutte started using the word groepsimmuniteit. And then was an audible intake of breath. Isn’t this what the UK just backtracked on?
This is what the prime minister actually said:
“Wie het virus heeft gehad, is daarna meestal immuun. Net als vroeger met de mazelen.
Hoe groter de groep die immuun is, hoe kleiner de kans voor het virus om over te springen op kwetsbare ouderen en mensen met een zwakke gezondheid.
Met groepsimmuniteit bouw je als het ware een beschermende muur om hen heen. Dat is het principe.”
Mark Rutte 16 March 2020
Basically he said, that like the measles earlier, those who have had the coronavirus are usually immune afterwards. The bigger the group that immune is, the smaller the chance is that the virus can jump to vulnerable groups. With herd immunity you build a protecting wall around them. That’s the principle.
And that seems to be what the critics picked up and ran with.
However, Mark Rutte elaborated on his statement about the idea of coronavirus herd immunity in the Netherlands.
Three Coronavirus Scenarios in the Netherlands
He said herd immunity would take a long time to build up.
The prime minister then described three scenarios. The first is maximum control of the coronavirus, second, let the virus spread at will, or the third scenario of trying to stop the virus in its tracks.
The third idea is not an option. We cannot stop the coronavirus. Stopping the virus in its tracks would mean a complete lock down until there is a vaccine. Which in effect means a lock down of more than a year. That means permission to leave your house for more than a year. Economic collapse. And all the consequences of shutting life down for more than a year. The other issue is that as soon as the measures are relaxed the virus will likely pop up again. Like whack-a-mole on a national scale.
And the second option is like the UK prime minister’s ‘take it on the chin’ approach; build up herd immunity and hope for the best in the future. This is not the route the Dutch have opted for. Because it is too risky, would collapse the health system and risk the lives of so many.
The Netherlands has opted for a maximum control of the virus. The idea being that this virus will spread anyway – as we cannot stop it – and we have to protect people as much as possible from the virus, particularly vulnerable people.
Controlling the Coronavirus
Therefore, the Dutch government’s approach is an ‘intelligent’ lock down. Call it what you like, but it is essentially a lock down. But the government is trusting us, the Dutch population, to do the right thing. To stay home. To keep to the rules. And if we don’t, further measures are being implemented as a response.
This way, the spread of the coronavirus is controlled so that the hospitals are not overwhelmed.
And cautiously, the national statistical trends seem to be backing up the government’s approach. The number of patients being admitted to the ICUs is declining. The curve does seem to be flattening. Despite the scaremongering in this BBC article, criticising the Dutch approach.
Tip: Follow Gordon Darroch on Twitter if Dutch coronavirus statistics are your thing.
So What About Coronavirus Herd Immunity in the Netherlands?
Clarifying after his speech of 16 March, Mark Rutte stated that herd immunity in the Netherlands will be a by-product of the controlled spread of the coronavirus.
In other words, herd immunity is something that will happen anyway, but it is not the primary focus of the Dutch approach to the virus. Nobody is letting the virus run riot so that we can all build up immunity.
The primary goal is to control the spread of the coronavirus so that the Dutch health system, and in particular intensive care units, can cope with the influx of patients. The other goal of the measures that the government has introduced is to protect those who are particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus: those over seventy, those with preexisting health issues, those in care homes.
The idea fluttering around in some articles that the Dutch are being put at risk, that we are being offered up to the coronavirus gods with a side prayer that all will be well is nonsense.
What is the Dutch Approach to the Coronavirus?
Much of the Netherlands is Closed
This BBC article, written a few days ago, suggests that the Dutch government is taking a huge risk with its coronavirus strategy. The article implies that much of Dutch society is continuing as normal, with the exception of contact professions, bars, restaurants and schools.
“Only those businesses that require touching, like hairdressers, beauticians and red light brothels, have been forced to cease trading.
Bars, restaurants and cannabis cafes are shut, although they seem to be doing a roaring trade in takeaways.”
Coronavirus: Why Dutch lockdown may be a high-risk strategy
By Anna Holligan
However, there are a few things missing from the ‘closed’ list. There are no sports clubs, casinos or gyms open. The cinemas, museums and cinemas closed weeks ago. In short, the leisure industry is closed.
Many chains have closed their doors. An example is IKEA, which closed its doors on the 17 March across the country. Most clothes, sports and shoe chains remain closed. There’s a comprehensive list of closures here on RTLZ.
Those stores or premises that remain open must take measures to maintain social distancing, or face closure and fines. So, for example, due to the measures in place, in one DIY store in the Randstad there was a three hour queue to get in.
If too many people flock to the beach, the roads leading to the beach are closed. If crowds head for a nature spot, the roads are closed.
Motor bikers were out en masse last weekend. Measures will now be taken to ensure the same doesn’t happen next weekend.
I can tell you that life is anything but normal right now.
Our reasons for leaving the house have been, by and large, taken away.
Stay Home
The BBC article also states that the advice is to stay home. It’s a little more than advice. This is the reality:
Only go outside if you really need to:
For work (if you cannot work from home)
To buy groceries
To take care of someone or to get some fresh air.
Always stay 1.5 metres away from one another.
Government of the Netherlands
If you are ill, you stay at home. If you have a fever, the whole family stays home.
The full list of measures can be read here.
It’s a lock down. It doesn’t go as far as Italy and France, where you need a document to go out stating your reasons for leaving the house, but I can assure you life is not continuing as normal here in the Netherlands. We are in lock down.
I have been out of the house to get fruit and veggies once since the 11th March. I have walked around the village a few times since then. My kids have been to the playground in the village a handful of times since schools closed. That’s as far as they have been.
There are five of us home, essentially 24/7.
There are Idiots Everywhere
The lock down in the Netherlands is described as an intelligent one. There is of course an assumption that everyone sticks to the rules. And we all know that is not always the case. But total lock down or not, there are always people who flout the rules. A friend in Madrid told me that the number of people fined there, a few weeks back, for breaking the lock down far outweighed number of people in the city infected with the coronavirus.
In other words, whatever a government does, there will always be people who decide to take their own course of action.
Are the Measures all About Coronavirus Herd Immunity in the Netherlands?
No, not really. I cannot speak for the rest of the country but I don’t feel like my family is being offered up as sacrificial lambs to the coronavirus. I don’t feel like any aspect of life is carrying on as normal, with the aim that we all take the coronavirus on the chin, whilst the vulnerable of society keep themselves to themselves.
Don’t believe all you read in the newspaper.
Over to You
As always, I would love to hear your views. Is there merit in the BBC article? Do you feel at risk from the Dutch government’s strategy for tackling the coronavirus? I would also love to hear from those of you in other countries.
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